Scotland is holding a major referendum on Sept. 18, to determine if the government should secure independence from the UK, a union officially sealed as long ago as 1707. The political impetus for this has been the chafing of Scotland, which mostly votes Labour in national elections, at the doings of Conservative governments. How an independent Scotland would vote may best be guessed at by examining the results for the Holyrood parliament over the last 15 years, but what would happen to the rump UK? Without Scottish Labour MPs, would it be doomed to eternal Tory domination? Let's find out.
actual results notional results year Con Lab oth Con Lab oth real winner notional winner 1945 213 393 34 184 356 29 Labour Labour 1950 298 315 12 266 278 10 Labour Labour 1951 321 295 9 286 260 8 Conservative Conservative 1955 344 277 9 308 243 8 Conservative Conservative 1959 365 258 7 334 220 5 Conservative Conservative 1964 304 317 9 280 274 5 Labour Conservative 1966 253 363 14 233 317 9 Labour Labour 1970 330 287 13 307 243 9 Conservative Conservative 1974a 297 301 37 276 261 27 Labour (min.) Conservative (min.) 1974b 277 319 39 261 278 25 Labour Labour (min.) 1979 339 269 27 317 225 22 Conservative Conservative 1983 397 209 44 376 168 34 Conservative Conservative 1987 376 229 45 366 118 24 Conservative Conservative 1992 336 271 44 325 222 32 Conservative Conservative 1997 165 418 76 165 362 60 Labour Labour 2001 166 412 81 165 357 65 Labour Labour 2005 198 355 93 197 315 75 Labour Labour 2010 305 258 86 304 217 69 Conservative (min.) Conservative
So there's the answer, all other things being equal. A Labour blowout would be preserved, but a narrow victory like 1964 or 1974 would be lost, and in the current term, Cameron's Tories would have won outright: no need for a coalition deal with the Liberal Decmorats. Scotland's secession would give the Conservatives a leg up in the rump UK, but not a total command.
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